中英对照：气候变化具有世界范围的广泛影响

　　[BEIJING] Many physical and ecological systems are being affected by the world's warming climate, researchers say.

　　全世界各国的科学家们利用统计模型公布了829个自然系统和大约28800个动植物系统的数据变化情况——包括全球性的以及大陆性的——其中的一些数据能上溯到1970年。

　　Scientists from across the world applied statistical models to published data on changes in 829 physical systems and around 28,800 plant and animal systems —on both global and continental scales — some with data going back to 1970.

　　他们的分析发表于5月15日的《自然》杂志中，它探究了这些变化是否与气温升高、以及诸如陆地使用变化或简单的自然变化此类因素有关。

　　Their analysis, published in Nature last week (15 May), looked at whether these changes were related to temperature increase, other factors such as land use change, or simply natural variability.

　　科学家们发现，被研究的自然系统中，大约95%相应了受全球变暖趋势的影响。该分析发现，所有的大陆冰川已经在缩减，永久冻结带正在融化，春季水平面高度在改变，湖泊河流温度也在上升。

　　Around 95 per cent of the physical systems studied responded to the world's warming trend. The analysis found that glaciers in every continent have been shrinking, permafrost is melting, the peak of river levels in spring is shifting, and lake and river temperatures are rising.

　　动植物中90%的变化都反映出受到气温上升的影响，这其中有提前开花以及树叶提前生长。

　　And 90 per cent of the changes in plants and animals were consistent with responses to temperature rise, including earlier blooming and leaf unfolding.

　　该论文作者们并没有发现多少证据表明自然变化或其他环境方面因素对这些变化具有显著影响，从而最终推断这些系统是受到了气候变化的影响。

　　The authors found little evidence that natural variability or other environmental factors were significant, and conclude that climate change is affecting these systems.

　　他们的发现很大程度上与政府间气候变化专门委员会的第二工作组(IPCC WG-2)报告保持一致，该报告中就提到自然生态系统有超过89%的明显变化是与气候变化相一致的。IPCC第四次评估报告推断，全球变暖“极有可能”是人为造成的。

　　Their findings are largely consistent with the report by the second working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC WG-2), which says more than 89 per cent of the significant changes in physical and biological systems are consistent with global warming. The IPCC fourth assessment report concluded it is "likely" that global warming is human-induced.

　　该论文第一作者、美国国家宇航局 Goddard 空间研究所科学家Cynthia Rosenzweig对科学与发展网络（SciDev.Net）记者说，该研究拓展了IPCC WG-2的工作，把分析扩展到了大陆范围内。

　　Cynthia Rosenzweig, lead author and scientist at the US-based NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told SciDev.Net that the study expanded the work by IPCC WG-2, extending the analysis to the continental scale.

　　The researchers also call for more sensitive observation networks documenting responses to warming, especially in tropical and subtropical regions.

　　中国水资源信息中心的刘春蓁也是该论文的共同作者，她说：“在中国，还非常缺乏对动植物在全球变暖中细微变化的细致分析。”

　　Co-author Liu Chunzen, from the China Water Information Centre, says that, in China, "delicate studies on the nuances of changes in plants and animals responding to the warming are severely lacking."

　　本文由科学与发展网络(SciDev.Net)独家提供。